
Well here we go. By this time Tuesday, we’ll know exactly who’s nominated for the 66th Annual Tony Awards. For the past four weeks, I’ve been weighing through the reviews, industry buzz, social media scope, and fanboy/fangirl chatter to pick up on who’s up and who’s down in nomination likelihood. (Check out Week 1, Week 2, and Week 3 of the “Tony Tracker” if you need a refresher). Now here we go – the final predictions. Read ‘em through, debate me in the comments section, and check back here Tuesday to see who you should be tweeting your congratulations to and who you should probably leave alone for a few days.
BEST MUSICAL

UP: Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark and Bonnie & Clyde. With Leap of Faith and Ghost the Musical both opening to tremendously bad reviews, the fourth slot for Best Musical suddenly became a wide open race. On first glance, Bonnie & Clyde has the advantage here. After all, it picked up Drama League, Drama Desk, and Outer Critics Circle Awards nominations for “best musical.” The thing is, when compared to those previously mentioned shit shows, Bonnie & Clyde doesn’t look that bad. Being closed helps. You forget about all that sloppy storytelling and instead fondly remember Jeremy Jordan and Laura Osnes – both who would probably be available to slip back into their old duds and perform a number come Tony night. But I wouldn’t count Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark out just yet. It has the grosses of a big fat hit, and the theater community would love to drag it out to beat it up a little more. Hell, even Riedel thinks it has a shot – and that dude’s attacked Spider-Man more than the Green Goblin has. Either way, it should be an interesting shot.
DOWN: Leap of Faith. Holy shit was that a mess.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Bonnie & Clyde; Newsies; Nice Work If You Can Get It; Once
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

UP: Follies. Closed shows always run the risk of totally falling off the radar. But with Drama Desk, Drama League, and Outer Critics Circle Awards nominations for “best revival of a musical,” there’s no chance that’s going to happen to Follies.
DOWN: Godspell. Oh bless the Lord my soul, it’s not going to happen.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Evita; Follies; The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess; Godspell
BEST PLAY

UP: One Man, Two Guvnors. It may not have gotten any Olivier Awards love, but One Man, Two Guvnors picked up ‘best play” nominations from the Drama League and Outer Critics Circle. The critics loved it, it appears to be a box-office success, and even though the marketing campaign is a little lackluster, it’s getting major word-of-mouth action. I’d say that’s enough to get it the nomination it deserves.
DOWN: Venus in Fur. It was a critical hit and box office success when it first opened Off Broadway at the Classic Stage Company in 2012. The same critical buzz and box office rush carried it through its Broadway premiere at the Friedman back in November 2011 – and through its move to the Lyceum in February 2012. But in recent weeks, other shows have opened and stolen Venus’s spotlight. (Had it opened in the Spring, it may be a different story.) And with its limited engagement ending June 17, and four-star reviews for One Man, Two Guvnors and Peter and the Starcatcher, I think Venus is going to get the shaft.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Clybourne Park; One Man, Two Guvnors; Other Desert Cities; Peter and the Starcatcher
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

UP: Wit. Cynthia Nixon may be out of the Best Actress race, but there’s no doubt that this stunning production will make the cut.
DOWN: Man and Boy. No love from the Drama Desk, Drama League, or Outer Critics Circle folks. Sorry Frank Langella!
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Death of a Salesman; Gore Vidal’s The Best Man; A Streetcar Named Desire; Wit
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

UP: Paul Nolan (Jesus Christ Superstar). If Esparza falls, that fifth spot is wide open. And while Reeve Carney (Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark), Ron Raines (Follies), and Matthew Broderick (Nice Work If You Can Get It) have all been rumored to snatch that last spot, I wouldn’t count out Paul Nolan, who’s giving a pretty wonderful Broadway debut.
DOWN: Raúl Esparza (Leap of Faith). Not since Taboo have I seen reviews this bad for a Raúl Esparza show. But the most surprising thing about Leap’s bad reviews is how many of them were directed at Esparza himself. It’s as if everyone was slapping him in the face at once. He still has a lot going in his favor though. 1. He’s a bona fide Broadway star who’s originating a new role on Broadway. 2. Other actors have won this award for roles in critically-panned shows (see last year’s Norbert Leo Butz win for Catch Me If You Can). And 3. People are still totally sore that he didn’t win for Company, and are itching to fix that. While I doubt he’d ever win, he’s in the most trouble here.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Danny Burstein, Follies; Raúl Esparza (Leap of Faith); Jeremy Jordan (Newsies); Steve Kazee, (Once); Norm Lewis, (The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess)
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

UP: James Corden (One Man, Two Guvnors). Based on the rave reviews he received last week, I think Mr. Corden will have a lot of reasons to celebrate Tuesday.
DOWN: James Earl Jones (Gore Vidal’s The Best Man). While The Tony Awards Administration Committee ruled a bunch of above-the-title stars from Gore Vidal’s The Best Man to be eligible in the featured actress/actor play categories, James Earl Jones wasn’t one of them. While he’s giving an outstanding performance, it’s a tight category this year, and the stage legend is being outshined by his co-star, John Larroquette. This might be as tight as a race as the show itself!
PREDICTED NOMINEES: James Corden (One Man, Two Guvnors); Philip Seymour Hoffman (Death of a Salesman); Stacy Keach (Other Desert Cities); John Larroquette (Gore Vidal's The Best Man); John Lithgow (The Columnist)
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

UP: Patrick Page (Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark). For those who’ve seen Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark (either version 1 or 2), you kinda have to hand it to Patrick Page. He’s sure making the most out of his character, the Green Goblin, stealing just about every scene he’s in. Page has been playing the role for over a year now, and is a loyal player in the community. Plus, he nabbed a Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards nominations already. If Tony nominators wanted to give any love to Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark, this is certainly the category.
DOWN: David Alan Grier (The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess). Snubbed by the Drama Desks, Drama League, and Outer Critics Circle in lieu of Phillip Boykin. Looks like all this time, I’ve been betting on the wrong Porgy and Bess featured player.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Phillip Boykin (The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess); Michael Cerveris (Evita); Ricky Martin (Evita); Michael McGrath (Nice Work If You Can Get It); Patrick Page (Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark)
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

UP: Tom Edden (One Man, Two Guvnors). Rave reviews plus Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards nominations equals one very happy Tom Edden come Tuesday morning.
DOWN: Hamish Linklater (Seminar). Completely snubbed by the Drama Desk, Drama League, and Outer Critics Circle folks – and not even in the show anymore – I think it might be hard for Hamish Linklater to get the buzz he needs to secure a nomination.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Christian Borle (Peter and the Starcatcher); Michael Esper (The Lyons); Tom Edden (One Man, Two Guvnors); Andrew Garfield (Death of a Salesman); Jeremy Shamos (Clybourne Park)
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

UP: Bernadette Peters (Follies). She nabbed a Drama Desk Award nomination for her turn in Follies, and she’s a surefire Broadway legend. Not transferring to the L.A. production of Follies is a missed opportunity to remind people how brilliant she was as Sally. But a thin category mixed with some major disdain for Elena Roger should give Peters the edge here
DOWN: Caissie Levy (Ghost the Musical). It was always going to be a stretch to get Levy the nomination for Ghost the Musical. But those reviews put her way out of the running. Sad too, since she’s super great.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Jan Maxwell (Follies); Audra McDonald (The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess), Cristin Milioti (Once); Kelli O’Hara (Nice Work If You Can Get It); Bernadette Peters (Follies)
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

UP: Nicole Ari Parker (A Streetcar Named Desire). Though buzz was quiet on her to begin with, an Outer Critics Circle Awards nomination and stellar reviews should get Nicole Ari Parker the nomination she so deserves.
DOWN: Jennifer Lim (Chinglish). Lim also scored an Outer Critics Circle Awards nomination, and has been featured on a lot of critic’s top lists. If her show was still running (or ran longer), she’d probably have a chance. Right now, any inclusion of Lim in the mix is just wishful thinking.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Nina Arianda (Venus in Fur); Stockard Channing (Other Desert Cities); Tracie Bennett (End of the Rainbow); Linda Lavin (The Lyons); Nicole Ari Parker (A Streetcar Named Desire)
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

UP: Melissa van der Schyff (Bonnie & Clyde). She scored Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards nominations for her turn as Clyde’s uptight sister-in-law in Bonnie & Clyde – and her name has been brought up countless times on critic’s best-of lists. If there’s one person from Bonnie & Clyde who’ll secure a nomination, Melissa van der Schyff will be it.
DOWN: Elaine Page (Follies). Elaine Page might be the bigger “name” out of the Follies featured ladies, but I wouldn’t count out Jayne Houdyshell, who snatched an Outstanding Featured Actress in a Musical nomination from the Outer Critics.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Judy Kaye (Nice Work If You Can Get It); Jessie Mueller (On A Clear Day You Can See Forever); Elaine Paige (Follies); Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Ghost the Musical); Melissa van der Schyff (Bonnie & Clyde)
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

UP: Daphne Rubin-Vega (A Streetcar Named Desire). I still think her Stella is too crazy, but Daphne Rubin-Vega nabbed an Outer Critics Circle Awards nomination, and the buzz on her performance is pretty high. I think she might sneak into that last spot, vacated by…
DOWN: Lily Rabe (Seminar). Rabe’s turn in Seminar was strong enough to get her a Drama League Award nomination. But like her Seminar co-star Hamish Linklater, I think the buzz on Rabe is on the downturn – brought on heavily by the fact that she’s no longer in the role. She could still take the nomination from Daphne Rubin-Vega, but she has a lot going against her.
PREDICTED NOMINEES: Linda Emond (Death of a Salesman); Celia Keenan-Bolger (Peter and the Starcatcher); Angela Lansbury (Gore Vidal’s The Best Man); Judith Light (Other Desert Cities); Daphne Rubin-Vega (A Streetcar Named Desire)